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imo the hack to grokking Bayes is to focus on the likelihood-ratio. that's the only initially-counter-intuitive part.
and the likelihood-ratio is exactly the quantified version of material implication.
imo the hack to grokking Bayes is to focus on the likelihood-ratio. that's the only initially-counter-intuitive part.
and the likelihood-ratio is exactly the quantified version of material implication.
whenever i think of "evidence" (aka likelihood-ratio) or "implication", i first imagine a filled-out possibility-space. now, if "A implies/evidentiates B", then the possibility-juice in A squishes into the A∩B-region. visualize the squishification!
iow, if A is evidence, then "P(B|A)>P(B|U)", where "U" is the universal set.
iow, if A is evidence, then B is more likely when u *know* u are anywhere in region A, compared to how likely B is when u are anywhere in U.