Hot take: Making poorly calibrated public predictions is pretty awesome.
Not only can you learn from them, but it's fantastic that you were willing to predict something concrete clearly enough to actually be wrong - which is unfortunately rare.
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@davidmanheim
Completely true. I think people don't do it because they fear (perhaps justifiedly) to be punished more for trying and failing than not trying at all.
@niplav Yes - kind of a Schrödinger's theory of prediction.