Forecasting is Worse is Better

The Brier score was invented in 1950, Bayes' theorem was first described in 1763, and probability theory was properly invented at the beginning of the 18th century.

However, attempting to use forecasting to seriously determine the probability of future events, training & selecting people for their forecasting ability and creating procedures that incorporate both intuition-based and model-based predictions have only been around since the mid 1980s