Ngl yesterday at the airport I had >1% credence of "AI takeover is happening" for half an hour
@niplav I've had this feeling at least two times, but not for an entire half-hour! (I can't recall credences, but the plausibility was just emotionally salient/urgent to me.)
@niplav Anyway, um… I have question for you. 👉👈
I want to ask an AI (via system/user message) to use subscript probabilities (or another non-clumsy in-line way to do it), but I'm not sure what the semiotically-optimal option is.
- Confidence interval? Idk how to write those, or how avoid subtle noob-mistakes.
- Or maybe point-estimates are fine? In percentages or odds? Log-odds?? Or maybe "share likelihood ratios, not posterior beliefs"? Hartleys then??
@niplav Btw, claude-3.5-sonnet seems surprisingly eager to quantify uncertainty. It frequently does so even when this is the phrasing with which I request it:
"""
And when no specific answer is available, I'd really appreciate if you quantify/bound your uncertainty. : )
"""
Whole system prompt below, in case usefwl to you. I'm embarrassed about not yet having invested the warranted amount of time&effort in optimizing&personalizing the upfront context I provide it, but… TODO.
