I wanted a prediction market on when Asahi Linux would have some stuff done, and now it exists (albeit with play money): manifold.markets/DanielFilan/w

Update: I'm now @danielfilan.com on bluesky social.

I guess on priors I should expect people who were at twitter should be better at this?

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But algorithmic choice looks cool, as does domain names as handles as an identity verification method. blueskyweb.xyz/blog/3-6-2023-d

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Worst feature is they don't seem to have a website yet.

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I'm going to be real: it kind of looks like the AT protocol used at bluesky social is going to work better than the thing mastodon uses. I maybe expect to end up there? I'm @dfilan.bsky.social

When was the last time you threw something at a wall in anger? Select the first option that applies.

Have you ever thrown an object at a wall in anger? || Have you done so in the last two months?

Epigram for mechanistic interpretability:

"We are now writing algorithms we cannot read. That makes this a unique moment in history, in that we are subject to the ideas and actions of [something with a] human origin, but without [even potential] human oversight."

- Kevin Slavin

Fine video but worse than I would have guessed - was hoping for a discussion of when mechanistic reasoning works, why it fails so much, etc, but it's mostly case studies in people being wrong. youtu.be/NmJsCaQTXiE

One of my most obvious-to-me hypocrisies is my preferences about speaking during movies. When other people do it it's maddening: makes it impossible to hear and understand the dialogue. But when I do it it's fine.

My review of cubing: fun as ever, but hard on the wrists.

@alexaltair I had the vague impression that they aren't yet great for the domains of math that people actually work in.

What's the probability that Musk will be head of twitter on January 1st 2023?

Oh also Words Bubble Up is nice and colourful (Mishima film also has nice use of colour)

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OK it's actually also that I have context about Japan and its culture.

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