niplav @niplav@schelling.pt

I FUCKING LOVE N=1 SELF-BLINDED RCTS

how many metaculus questions resolved on technicalities?

wow https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vwLxd6hhFvPbvKmBH/yudkowsky-and-christiano-discuss-takeoff-speeds?commentId=mKgEsfShs2xtaWz4K

In general, how good are humans at solving problems compared to the theoretical optimum?

the floofless floof

hint: he's been working on……another project, let's say

you know why gwern has been posting so little in the past ~4 years, right?

Buntes Ministerium des Inneren

Why was 6 afraid of 7? Because 7 8 9 28 17639 576189438…

Sudden takeoff view: AI systems are like normal programming (where the system suddenly works ~much much better by fixing step 14/15)

Slow take off view: AI systems are like physical with graceful decline

Salamon deez nuts

Do you implement cognitive processes that increase the entanglement between your map and the territory?

Tell me about some internet subcultures I might not know about

"The Winner of the Hanson-Yudkowsky Foom debate was Gwern"

mood

p(doom)≈65%
timelines: 20% in 3 years, 50% in 10 years, 80% in 25 years
takeoff speeds: 20% in a day, 50% in 3 months, 80% in two years
p(s-risk) definitely too high. waaayyy too high. sth like 10⁻⁵ perhaps?

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1641526864626720774 "We understand the concerns"

I press X for doubt