niplav @niplav@schelling.pt

Economic policy checklist

Text at https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oTaku2oCFC8ya5F3L/open-thread-june-2023-inline-reacts?commentId=5W7LEsBDhKgksGngt

There are Pareto worsenings: you make everyone worse off by their standards. But are there Kaldor-Hicks worsenings?

The naive version (everyone is worse off, and there is no way of making a single person better off through distribution) doesn't work: you can always push a guy into huge debt and make everyone else super happy

Perhaps we just negate: everyone is worse off and there is no way of making everyone better off through distribution.

There is surprisingly little post singularity poetry

I didn't expect breaking up with someone to feel this bad

Does the human mind do second-order prediction to steer towards grokking? I remember that there's a way to feel when you're about to understand

Copy of Grand Futures: acquired.

Ffmpeg but sung like the hhhgregg/doing alright daft punk remixes

Forecasting is Worse is Better

The Brier score was invented in 1950, Bayes' theorem was first described in 1763, and probability theory was properly invented at the beginning of the 18th century.

However, attempting to use forecasting to seriously determine the probability of future events, training & selecting people for their forecasting ability and creating procedures that incorporate both intuition-based and model-based predictions have only been around since the mid 1980s

Im in Berlin now until next Wednesday

I'm now also back on twitter, handle niplav_site (celebrating the fact I managed to use the domain I now use: http://niplav.site

Degrowth leads to stagnation not collapse I think

Site down till tomorrow bc DNS propagation

You gotta pump this agent's money
That's some rookie trading