niplav @niplav@schelling.pt

What'd happen to the internet if the speed of light was 100x slower?

Ok followers what are sone *really* good old blogs?

reading "automating the boring stuff with python" with the gf 🤙

Having fun challenging with how to swap to variables

How many ships are there in the ocean at any time?

Economic policy checklist

Text at https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oTaku2oCFC8ya5F3L/open-thread-june-2023-inline-reacts?commentId=5W7LEsBDhKgksGngt

There are Pareto worsenings: you make everyone worse off by their standards. But are there Kaldor-Hicks worsenings?

The naive version (everyone is worse off, and there is no way of making a single person better off through distribution) doesn't work: you can always push a guy into huge debt and make everyone else super happy

Perhaps we just negate: everyone is worse off and there is no way of making everyone better off through distribution.

There is surprisingly little post singularity poetry

I didn't expect breaking up with someone to feel this bad

Does the human mind do second-order prediction to steer towards grokking? I remember that there's a way to feel when you're about to understand

Copy of Grand Futures: acquired.

Ffmpeg but sung like the hhhgregg/doing alright daft punk remixes

Forecasting is Worse is Better

The Brier score was invented in 1950, Bayes' theorem was first described in 1763, and probability theory was properly invented at the beginning of the 18th century.

However, attempting to use forecasting to seriously determine the probability of future events, training & selecting people for their forecasting ability and creating procedures that incorporate both intuition-based and model-based predictions have only been around since the mid 1980s