great 🧵 discussing a network topology-aware simulation strategy for modeling epidemics, proposing a explanation for the unusual periodicity we've observed
while not quite agent-based, this simulation strategy accounts salient nuances of real-world behavior other approaches dont
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RT @phl43
Many have noted the cyclical nature of the pandemic, with waves that come and go seemingly at random, but the reasons for this remain mysterious. In th…
https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1462806796020686850
generally I'm majorly in favor of agent-based models for simulating any domain where network topology is salient (ie where internode interactions are heterogenous and cliquey)
even probabilistic variants tend to better model real-world dynamics than purely analytic approaches
agent simulations weren't too popular historically for a variety of reasons (computational challenges, claims of overengineering, etc) but many real-world systems are sufficiently complex that assumptions of global homogeneity simply don't hold
v glad to see attitudes changing
accounts for**
important nuance required regarding the limits of this approach and the many assumptions made; it's more useful as a counterargument for assumptions made in many current models, and direction for future exploration
he's not the first to make these points but this is well written