Ngl yesterday at the airport I had >1% credence of "AI takeover is happening" for half an hour

@niplav I've had this feeling at least two times, but not for an entire half-hour! (I can't recall credences, but the plausibility was just emotionally salient/urgent to me.)

@niplav Anyway, um… I have question for you. 👉👈

I want to ask an AI (via system/user message) to use subscript probabilities (or another non-clumsy in-line way to do it), but I'm not sure what the semiotically-optimal option is.

- Confidence interval? Idk how to write those, or how avoid subtle noob-mistakes.

- Or maybe point-estimates are fine? In percentages or odds? Log-odds?? Or maybe "share likelihood ratios, not posterior beliefs"? Hartleys then??

@rime I think point estimates are totally fine, and hard to mess up.
I still go with percentage-space most of the time because my beliefs aren't *that* strong in most cases.

And likelihood ratios would be used if you're updating a proposition
based on some evidence (where you need *both*)—seeing E updates H by 2 shannon (base-2 supremacy, sorry :-D)

I now wonder whether notation is useful for the update case…
(started at niplav.site/subscripts.html#Share_Likelihood_Ratios_not_Beliefs)

@niplav base 2 is just superior. 🤝

also, re "share likelihood ratios, not beliefs", I like my comment as a quick demonstration of the dangers of doing the opposite.

the essence is just that—ideally—ioto avoid accidental double-counting when updating on testimony, u want to say ➀ [exactly which ~personally-independent observations u have], and ➁ [quantify the evidential weight (for some H) of those observations in u's own interpretation]. computationally costly, tho…

"ioto" ↦ "in order to"