market that, if NO, resolves NO, and if YES, resolves N/A with probability that's a function of the market probabilty. if said function is exponential you can elicit people's probabilities over many orders of magnitude I think
yep it works and what's more bf setting p' = p/(p + k * (1-p)) and solving for k you can get any transformation your heart desires. probably gets a bit squirrelly around discount rates though
@TetraspaceGrouping looking forward to it!
don't forget [to apply](https://effectiveideas.org/) 😉
yeah it absolutely kicks your ass on EV terms