if i do something dumb, i can always say that it had great vopi

Just downloaded micwoa files inshallah

Saying "somebody should do X" repeatedly while apparently also not doing that thing or anything else, without blockers, ought to be discouraged

We can also make "value of perfect information" a short word, "vopi"

Let's conquer hell, they can't stop all of us

alright got a frontend that works
- sendgrid integration
- login
- ui that sucks less
- deploy!

Show thread

Or of course whatever the on the policy-conditional prediction market over bottom-10%-income health outcomes with options for {ACA, public option, M4A, NHS, ...}

Politics is gonna be so great for the 10 or so people who do this

Show thread

Threshold-conditional commitment benefit: you can make your coalition legible to politicians! Make a commitment that you will vote for whoever backs M4A if a million other people do!

cringe opinion i hold 

eliezer yudkowsky is good actually

what if we kissed 👉👈😳 in front of the whiteboard with haphazard alignment ideas

if you bet against the prediction market and lose you've been manitold

im gonna be like "if Biden X happiness, if Trump Y happiness, if Harris Z happiness, if Buttigieg W happiness, if DeSantis V happiness" and they're all going to be so wowed by the objective law and truth of the markets that they will vote for whoever causes max(X, Y, Z, W, V) happiness. and utopia will be achieved

Show thread

cant wait for manifold to have proper numerical markets so i can start spamming it with conditional country metrics

Customs agent stops me and pulls an apple out of my luggage.

"What is this?" he demands.

"Fruit," I answer innocently. "You must respect it."

He holds it out to a uniformed dog, who growls. Rolling his eyes, he takes out a knife and cuts the fruit open.

Within the fruit is a small, plastic bag.

Within the bag is another, smaller apple.

"Very funny," he spits as he begins cutting into that second apple.

He stops.

A powerful, sweet smell is emanating from everywhere at once.

He looks back at me, but I am no longer there.

Nervously, he cuts into the apple. As this happens, a gigantic steel beam slices through the roof.

He drops the apple in shock, and it splits in half upon hitting the ground. The roof, likewise, is peeled back to reveal me, now a giant holding a big knife.

"How does it feel?" I ask, just as innocently, although my booming voice can no longer convey emotion in a comprehensible manner.

Nervously, he looks down at the apple he dropped. Inside it, there's a small person.

It is him.

they should do the repository for germinal choice again that was a good idea

Show more

a Schelling point for those who seek one