I vaguely remember there being some stats trick where like if you know distributions random variables X, Y, and X*Y or something you can find stuff about the relationship between X and Y
If so interested in this because let X = total EA spending, Y = EA meta spending, then we could elicit the effectiveness of EA meta spending (+$1 to meta = +$X in overall funding) from prediction markets or superforecasters
idk if I’m just making this up tho
Empty individualism is obviously true, closed individualism is obviously false, and who can tell about open individualism?
Thing I have noticed with rationalists (e. g. Ein Tyre and to a lesser extent myself): saying something and then pausing, saying "do I believe that?" and reflecting for a couple of seconds.
Its kind of an admission of defeat (your brain produces thought & speech faster than it can check) but there is a higher-order process running that performs a-posteriori sanity checks.
I like it.
https://twitter.com/HaitianBhaddie/status/1379371020495245313?s=20 what lindy wisdom do these babies possess?
enjoyer of things
(maybe of people?)
a Schelling point for those who seek one