Moved to mastodon.social! @TetraspaceGrouping@schelling.pt

joining Cryonics UK; i've sent them the membership fee and have emailed them asking for a form 📋

next call with life insurance is tomorrow

Using prediction markets to decide what to have for lunch, as is the way of the ilani.

now i can do a linear regression (this is stupid and will not work)

I'm going to die with indignity. Those assholes kept developing AGI because...?

@niplav umeshism: if you're not being eulered, the bitrate of your communication channel isn't high enough

got my entire manifold bankroll riding on roon winning aella's tournament. M$1000 if he wins. M$0 if he loses. lets gooooooo

@fluffy what is the meaning of life?

deety is of course the field of econ about maxxing your ufe once you've got a model with probs

thinking of maybe just shortening various deety terms so i can sound like a cyberpunk future rat

@niplav happy(?) plausible deniablity day everyone!

@niplav forecasters can epistemically dominate anyone just by copying their conclusions!

...probably they're not going to came up with anything novel for (a small amount of) internet money though

someone should legalise prediction markets so we can get hedge funds doing this already

Who is Emperor Belos from the Owl House?

It's Phillip Wittebane, I'm gonna wait until the end of the season just in case it's a bait and switch but it's Phillip Wittebane, we all know this from the moment Phil's name was mentioned, this is free M$.

https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/who-is-emperor-belos-from-the-owl-h

What will the most cost-effective charity on Givewell's spreadsheet at the end of 2022 do?

In 2020 vitamin A supplementation overtook deworming as the top intervention in Givewell's spreadsheet.

This market is part of my greater vague idea of EA orgs maybe using predictions of their research findings to decide what research to prioritise; this market looks bullish on malaria prevention for example.

https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/what-will-the-most-costeffective-ch

Will the Supreme Court uphold the Ninth Circuit's judgment that California Proposition 12 doesn't violate the Commerce Clause?

Article on the matter is https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-agrees-consider-law-regulating-pigs-are-raised-rcna2066, meat industry is saying California's new animal welfare requirements are unconstitutional because it's causally entangled with interstate commerce.

https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/will-the-supreme-court-uphold-the-n

Maybe I'll start using schelling more than Twitter, everyone in schelling is nice