I'm willing to take bets similar to the ones described in this tweet: https://nitter.hu/MatthewJBar/status/1534113341156691968#m
@niplav biggest ??? is what's going on with alien intelligence, like to what extent do interstellar ships require superhuman intelligence to build and if so why are they shining laser pointers at us rather than being a ball of CEV expanding at lightspeed
@niplav The lightcone would be safe because the aliens clearly don't want there to be big visible changes to the lightcone otherwise we'd see those. Because AI didn't get the aliens, our prior on AI would lean safer, though we have enough direct evidence to swamp that out. It would be nice if they'd do a pivotal action to stop Earth-originating AGI when it looks imminent that left humanity intact, but maybe they'd just have RKVs on a hair trigger.
@niplav i think i was like "actually i want to consider this more" but then ended up not doing that
it's funny, conditional on AGI (and perhaps also WBE?) not doing us in, i'm pretty bullish on this century. bio seems much less of a problem, and everything else is basically a-okay, especially with people becoming richer and needing to fight less. most other collapse narratives sound pretty unlikely
@niplav a very very very very very very very safe machine executable &c. | trending on alignment forum
I can either poast https://niplav.github.io/turning.html as it's now (with non-finished sections elided) to LW or post a half-finished version in 5 months (yes, it's not even half-finished by now)
wat do
@niplav putting the EU in EU
right now I need to put my life insurance in absolute trust and also get a bunch of documents signed and notarised and then I'm sorted
this should be easy
https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/will-i-have-signed-and-notarised-my
date: 2006
@niplav because certificate whoopsies the link is the only way I can view the image 😅
High variance
I think this might actually be a good idea?!
Shows willingness to give a loud signal to critics, but with gentle push back. Would encourage Gebru to actually read up on what EA *actually is* (she would do that, right?).
It would also satisfy my sadistic impulses towards Rob ;-)
If she refuses, make it known that she did, but in a mentioning way (accusing would be too obvious), which is almost as good as having her on. ("The critics won't talk to them directly!")
@niplav 🥰
Moved to @TetraspaceGrouping