Garry Kasparov can't exist. Whenever I ask people what chess moves he would make, they just smooth it over with a vague and magical "one that's good"; the only time someone deigned to give an actual theory of how he'd win, it was a long conjunctive string of moves and coutermoves that I could have easily completely invalidated just by making a different move earlier in the game. Clearly it's just the delusion of someone who's watched too much Queen's Gambit.
I'm willing to take bets similar to the ones described in this tweet: https://nitter.hu/MatthewJBar/status/1534113341156691968#m
it's funny, conditional on AGI (and perhaps also WBE?) not doing us in, i'm pretty bullish on this century. bio seems much less of a problem, and everything else is basically a-okay, especially with people becoming richer and needing to fight less. most other collapse narratives sound pretty unlikely
I can either poast https://niplav.github.io/turning.html as it's now (with non-finished sections elided) to LW or post a half-finished version in 5 months (yes, it's not even half-finished by now)
wat do
right now I need to put my life insurance in absolute trust and also get a bunch of documents signed and notarised and then I'm sorted
this should be easy
https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/will-i-have-signed-and-notarised-my
High variance
I think this might actually be a good idea?!
Shows willingness to give a loud signal to critics, but with gentle push back. Would encourage Gebru to actually read up on what EA *actually is* (she would do that, right?).
It would also satisfy my sadistic impulses towards Rob ;-)
If she refuses, make it known that she did, but in a mentioning way (accusing would be too obvious), which is almost as good as having her on. ("The critics won't talk to them directly!")
AI alignment in 12 seconds:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4NcHrCz8yE
Moved to @TetraspaceGrouping