Will the Supreme Court uphold the Ninth Circuit's judgment that California Proposition 12 doesn't violate the Commerce Clause?
Article on the matter is https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-agrees-consider-law-regulating-pigs-are-raised-rcna2066, meat industry is saying California's new animal welfare requirements are unconstitutional because it's causally entangled with interstate commerce.
https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/will-the-supreme-court-uphold-the-n
What will the most cost-effective charity on Givewell's spreadsheet at the end of 2022 do?
In 2020 vitamin A supplementation overtook deworming as the top intervention in Givewell's spreadsheet.
This market is part of my greater vague idea of EA orgs maybe using predictions of their research findings to decide what research to prioritise; this market looks bullish on malaria prevention for example.
https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/what-will-the-most-costeffective-ch
@TetraspaceGrouping I'm not sure forecasters can epistemically dominate givewell research analysts 🤔
Hm.
If forecasters make predictions about the decisions of A 1 year in the future, then to epistemically dominate A by copying their conclusions, they would need to do the same work as A for that year.
(This might be the case if you're talking about hedge funds, but then I fear funding of prediction markets becomes your bottleneck (disclaimer: I have not read the relevant paper, and only know ~third hand that you need to logarithmically subsidise prediction markets))
@niplav forecasters can epistemically dominate anyone just by copying their conclusions!
...probably they're not going to came up with anything novel for (a small amount of) internet money though
someone should legalise prediction markets so we can get hedge funds doing this already