While AI just had its “iPhone” moment it’s important to remember there was only a single iPhone moment, followed by years of mediocre incremental improvements. I wouldn’t be surprised if GPT-X doesn’t get too much better than this.
Nah it's valid making precise predictions is super hard if you don't wanna get caught up in technicalities.
I continue to claim that while you mightn't admit it in 1½ years, you'll have been surprised by the rate of progress ;-)
@niplav I’ll probably still have a yearly panic attack whenever I see how good the new GPT is lol. But I can’t imagine seeing another increase similar to that from gpt3 to gpt4 in a single generation. But maybe the edge cases and slight mistakes really will go away with more compute. Nobody knows!
@niplav @jarbus I think it’s hard to predict, because these things will go from solving 90% of a problem to 95%, to 95.5%, etc. I don’t think anyone knows for sure what edge cases will be solvable at 95% vs 99.9%, just like I wouldn’t claim to know what specific roads a Tesla can and can’t drive on autopilot successfully. It’s a bit of a cop-out, but I don’t think humans understand the nature of the problems we are trying to solve in the first place.