While AI just had its “iPhone” moment it’s important to remember there was only a single iPhone moment, followed by years of mediocre incremental improvements. I wouldn’t be surprised if GPT-X doesn’t get too much better than this.
@jarbus I would. Any concrete things you might want to bet on? E.g. a thing you predict no AI system will be able to do by the end of 2024.
@niplav @jarbus I think it’s hard to predict, because these things will go from solving 90% of a problem to 95%, to 95.5%, etc. I don’t think anyone knows for sure what edge cases will be solvable at 95% vs 99.9%, just like I wouldn’t claim to know what specific roads a Tesla can and can’t drive on autopilot successfully. It’s a bit of a cop-out, but I don’t think humans understand the nature of the problems we are trying to solve in the first place.
Nah it's valid making precise predictions is super hard if you don't wanna get caught up in technicalities.
I continue to claim that while you mightn't admit it in 1½ years, you'll have been surprised by the rate of progress ;-)
@niplav I’ll probably still have a yearly panic attack whenever I see how good the new GPT is lol. But I can’t imagine seeing another increase similar to that from gpt3 to gpt4 in a single generation. But maybe the edge cases and slight mistakes really will go away with more compute. Nobody knows!