I am *not* convinced by the evidence for multiplicative decomposition in judgmental forecasting[1]
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YjZ8sJmkGJQhNcjHj/the-evidence-for-question-decomposition-is-weak
Question decomposition appears to be a relatively common method for forecasting, see Allyn-Feuer & Sanders 2023, Silver 2016, Kaufman 2011 and Hanson…
a Schelling point for those who seek one