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I don't think celebrities should be allowed to post. it should just be for us peasants

@kaia i don't have to do statistics today but I want to

@rime Used that in niplav.site/china.html, but takes some intuition to build up.

So, TL;DR: I think probabilities expressed as percentages are a-okay 🙂

@rime CIs work if your belief is over some real-valued quantity out there in the world. If it's a probability on a binary event (will X/won't X) I *think* a CI is not necessary—at least nobody has been able to come up with a good argument why a probability distribution over belief on binary propositions doesn't just "integrate out". (Infrabayesian shenanigans aside.)

When I want to still have a CI on a binary proposition I guess noting
parameters for a Beta-distribution would work?

@rime I think point estimates are totally fine, and hard to mess up.
I still go with percentage-space most of the time because my beliefs aren't *that* strong in most cases.

And likelihood ratios would be used if you're updating a proposition
based on some evidence (where you need *both*)—seeing E updates H by 2 shannon (base-2 supremacy, sorry :-D)

I now wonder whether notation is useful for the update case…
(started at niplav.site/subscripts.html#Share_Likelihood_Ratios_not_Beliefs)

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Something big happened this weekend. Everyone is talking about it. Many are feeling a new sense of hope.

That's right: I finished writing my new book "What is Entropy?" It's just 120 pages long. It has a lot of sections, mostly one page each, each based on a tweet. This is just a draft, and I'm still fixing typos and other mistakes. So grab a copy - and if you catch errors, please let me know, either here or on my blog!

It is not a pop book: it's an introduction that assumes you know calculus. But it's about a lot of big, bold concepts, and I try to really get to the bottom of them:

• information
• Shannon entropy and Gibbs entropy
• the principle of maximum entropy
• the Boltzmann distribution
• temperature and coolness
• the relation between entropy, expected energy and temperature
• the equipartition theorem
• the partition function
• the relation between entropy, free energy and expected energy
• the entropy of a classical harmonic oscillator
• the entropy of a classical particle in a box
• the entropy of a classical ideal gas

I learned a lot by trying to explain in words what people often say only with equations.

johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com/2

The SC in TESCREAL stands for Sneerclub

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while making a shitpost i found a version of the fourth bodhisattva vow that goes “the buddha way is unattainable; i vow to attain it”. that goes hard tbh.

Lewd vent 

@Paradox pouring one out for everyone afflicted by cute Austrian deficiency

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@nyx In the 9/11 myth, a phallic tool (the plane) is used for destruction of a phallic object (the towers, the epitome of masculine architecture), where in the crucifixion myth, a phallic tool (the spear) is used to *create* a yonic object (the side wound). The metaphorical vagina forced upon Jesus, as in the same way reproduction was forced on Eve by Adam.

And so in my opinion a more fitting analogy would be to say that the crucifixion was like Christianity's Hiroshima. And what came three days after Hiroshima? That's right, the fat man was used on Nagasaki. The analogy to Easter is obvious.

Discourse: Cost Disease 

@Angle I think that Georgism predicts that housing will become the major driver of labor cost, but in affluent societies I think that's not right at the moment—many people are far above subsistence level, spending money on holidays, entertainment, eating out &c, which are fairly capital- and natural resource-expensive.

But cheaper housing would still be awesome, perhaps on par with open borders

Ngl yesterday at the airport I had >1% credence of "AI takeover is happening" for half an hour

I should've asked out the hot Austrian stuck at the airport with me today 😭

Being newly single is tough, just like I wanted ⚪

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A deconstructionist author makes a typo. Looks at the page and says, "eh, what's the differance?"

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