niplav @niplav@schelling.pt

you know why gwern has been posting so little in the past ~4 years, right?

Buntes Ministerium des Inneren

Why was 6 afraid of 7? Because 7 8 9 28 17639 576189438…

Sudden takeoff view: AI systems are like normal programming (where the system suddenly works ~much much better by fixing step 14/15)

Slow take off view: AI systems are like physical with graceful decline

Salamon deez nuts

Do you implement cognitive processes that increase the entanglement between your map and the territory?

Tell me about some internet subcultures I might not know about

"The Winner of the Hanson-Yudkowsky Foom debate was Gwern"

mood

p(doom)≈65%
timelines: 20% in 3 years, 50% in 10 years, 80% in 25 years
takeoff speeds: 20% in a day, 50% in 3 months, 80% in two years
p(s-risk) definitely too high. waaayyy too high. sth like 10⁻⁵ perhaps?

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1641526864626720774 "We understand the concerns"

I press X for doubt

ne konfuzu “ilo” kaj “ulo”—uloj ne ŝatas ĝin.

Oh boy "be willing to airstrike datacenters" oh no ah stumbling I think

(In case this sounds like a promise: It's also not a very good joke)

Should I post a very tasteless joke

best yud

interesting twitter FOMO

lesswrong request rate limit exceeded

heh

I've never gotten much out of a book review & don't understand why people read or write them.

shifting from direct to indirect realism is important for value extrapolation

but can you trick the plan evaluation evaluation procedure?