niplav @niplav@schelling.pt

I am *not* convinced by the evidence for multiplicative decomposition in judgmental forecasting[1]

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YjZ8sJmkGJQhNcjHj/the-evidence-for-question-decomposition-is-weak

Arbitrary X aren't Y can mean:

* All X aren't Y
* Almost all X arent Y (real numbers, computable)
* Many X aren't Y, some are, and the two groups are hard to disentangle (SAT problems, sovable in polynomial time)
* Few X aren't Y, but we haven't found a way to distinguish the ones who are from the ones who aren't, and can generate arbitrary X that aren't Y (violations of strategy-freeness in voting theory)
* Almost no X are Y, but same situation as above (don't know example)

Related: fully/partially/barely mapped out positive space and fully/partially/barely mapped out negative space

EY better to be criticized for being imprecise

Out of all the things EY is wrong about, they[1] picked… p-zombies, decision theory and animal moral patienthood as central examples‽

Come on! There's so much better stuff

[1]: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TjyyngWFYvQWPpNNj/eliezer-yudkowsky-is-frequently-confidently-egregiously

Xenoexhibitionism

Seitgeist

In search of a Greater Ury[1]

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lesser_Ury

Meditation practice *after* a retreat is much more important than before a retreat or at random times during the year

E.g. Rounding is Garbage

Oh boy time to develop strong opinions on forecast precision

I have developed strong opinions on forecast precision

Good site: https://www.vincentweisser.com/

No more thesis

only hobby projects

Okay let's go home and do some fucking forecasting research or smth

more like Brain Tomasik amirite

List of citogenesis incidents: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:List_of_citogenesis_incidents

Is current LW discussion more civil/interesting than Usenet discussion