in the process of discussing the Lindy effect with @pareinoia yesterday, I realized that the concept has strong ties to that of civilizational filters (ie the Great Filter), and I don't think this is an angle I've seen brought up before
to explain, let me first define Lindy
@pee_zombie
Typically hazard functions show decay after a risky settling in period but a relatively smooth curve after that. May be constant hazard, may decay slowly, but there's usually not a discrete drop in the hazard at some arbitrary time far from zero
@pee_zombie
There are exceptions though. For instance if we assume covid takes two weeks to kill you, that'd show up as a bump two weeks after exposure.