in the process of discussing the Lindy effect with @pareinoia yesterday, I realized that the concept has strong ties to that of civilizational filters (ie the Great Filter), and I don't think this is an angle I've seen brought up before
to explain, let me first define Lindy
some phenomenon posses this property, others do not, & this roughly defines two general classes; the ones which do are referred to as "being Lindy", in reference to some NYC diner (idk the details, something about that diner having been around for an unusually long time)
@pee_zombie
Typically hazard functions show decay after a risky settling in period but a relatively smooth curve after that. May be constant hazard, may decay slowly, but there's usually not a discrete drop in the hazard at some arbitrary time far from zero
@pee_zombie
There are exceptions though. For instance if we assume covid takes two weeks to kill you, that'd show up as a bump two weeks after exposure.
so, say, couples: if a couple has been dating for a week, well, that doesn't mean very much, but for every additional week they're dating, their projected relationship length gets longer, by more than a week, bc fewer couples last that long, and the ones that do, last even longer