in the process of discussing the Lindy effect with @pareinoia yesterday, I realized that the concept has strong ties to that of civilizational filters (ie the Great Filter), and I don't think this is an angle I've seen brought up before
to explain, let me first define Lindy
it relates to the concept of "probable persistence", wherein the length of time some phenomenon has already existed determines how likely it is to persist for various future timescales
there is a property such that the latter increases non-linearly, proportional to the former
some phenomenon posses this property, others do not, & this roughly defines two general classes; the ones which do are referred to as "being Lindy", in reference to some NYC diner (idk the details, something about that diner having been around for an unusually long time)
so, say, couples: if a couple has been dating for a week, well, that doesn't mean very much, but for every additional week they're dating, their projected relationship length gets longer, by more than a week, bc fewer couples last that long, and the ones that do, last even longer
once some barrier to growth/spread is overcome, there is (presumably) a period of intense growth, as the previously-suppressed potential is released and burned through
if the phenomenon is Lindy, "more of it" existing predicts "much more of it" persisting
this implies that it is possible to achieve Lindy status, and that not all instances of a certain phenomenon are such inherently; rather, they must surpass certain filters in order for the effect to take hold
is Homo Sapiens Lindy? depends on where the Great Filter lies
@pee_zombie
Typically hazard functions show decay after a risky settling in period but a relatively smooth curve after that. May be constant hazard, may decay slowly, but there's usually not a discrete drop in the hazard at some arbitrary time far from zero
@pee_zombie
There are exceptions though. For instance if we assume covid takes two weeks to kill you, that'd show up as a bump two weeks after exposure.
if you look at the probability distributions for these various phenomenon, you'll find cliffs at certain points along the timeline, where if it passes that point, the projected persistence jump discontinuously; consider how that relates to civilizational filters