Apple has done some kind of extra bullshit that makes this not work.
I don't know if it's System Integrity Protection on the backup folder, or some extra spicy ACL bullshit that rsync doesn't know. Either way, it prevents rsync from creating directories on the target drive.
Having given up on migrating the old data, I now start a full system backup.
12 hours, fine.
* major power outage overnight *
* screaming internally *