The problem with prediction markets is deciding the outcome. If you base it on an authority's decision, your market is a market on in the authority is captured by liars.
@WomanCorn This is not a problem, people buy shares in markets in which they trust that the resolution will be reliable.
@ciphergoth @cypher yeah. I assume the bettors will take capture into account and can survive a few unfair losses.
But if we use prediction markets as truth oracles, capture takes us away from truth being a good bet.
@WomanCorn @cypher You're not worried about the problem for people betting: what this harms is the attempt to use prediction markets to create consensus.