The problem with prediction markets is deciding the outcome. If you base it on an authority's decision, your market is a market on in the authority is captured by liars.
@WomanCorn This is not a problem, people buy shares in markets in which they trust that the resolution will be reliable.
@cypher the problem I am trying to point to is that the resolution criteria becomes a mix of the question itself and political influence.
If you can have a reliably uninfluencable decider, then it's not a problem, but those are thin on the ground.
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@WomanCorn @cypher You're not worried about the problem for people betting: what this harms is the attempt to use prediction markets to create consensus.
@ciphergoth @cypher yeah. I assume the bettors will take capture into account and can survive a few unfair losses.
But if we use prediction markets as truth oracles, capture takes us away from truth being a good bet.