niplav @niplav@schelling.pt

@gigabecquerel 🙏

@gigabecquerel thanks, I hate it

the floofless floof

hint: he's been working on……another project, let's say

you know why gwern has been posting so little in the past ~4 years, right?

Buntes Ministerium des Inneren

@lorddimwit filtered evidence is best evidence!

@BowsacNoodle @tortle It was this one: https://schelling.pt/web/@niplav/110117522044598214

Why was 6 afraid of 7? Because 7 8 9 28 17639 576189438…

Sudden takeoff view: AI systems are like normal programming (where the system suddenly works ~much much better by fixing step 14/15)

Slow take off view: AI systems are like physical with graceful decline

Salamon deez nuts

Do you implement cognitive processes that increase the entanglement between your map and the territory?

Tell me about some internet subcultures I might not know about

"The Winner of the Hanson-Yudkowsky Foom debate was Gwern"

mood

@WomanCorn Updateless Decision Theory But No Galaxybrained Shit

p(doom)≈65%
timelines: 20% in 3 years, 50% in 10 years, 80% in 25 years
takeoff speeds: 20% in a day, 50% in 3 months, 80% in two years
p(s-risk) definitely too high. waaayyy too high. sth like 10⁻⁵ perhaps?

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1641526864626720774 "We understand the concerns"

I press X for doubt

ne konfuzu “ilo” kaj “ulo”—uloj ne ŝatas ĝin.

Oh boy "be willing to airstrike datacenters" oh no ah stumbling I think

(In case this sounds like a promise: It's also not a very good joke)