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important nuance required regarding the limits of this approach and the many assumptions made; it's more useful as a counterargument for assumptions made in many current models, and direction for future exploration

he's not the first to make these points but this is well written

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great 🧵 discussing a network topology-aware simulation strategy for modeling epidemics, proposing a explanation for the unusual periodicity we've observed

while not quite agent-based, this simulation strategy accounts salient nuances of real-world behavior other approaches dont
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RT @phl43
Many have noted the cyclical nature of the pandemic, with waves that come and go seemingly at random, but the reasons for this remain mysterious. In th…
twitter.com/phl43/status/14628

cumulative copying error is just informational mass transfer loss

tys I'm assorted transhumanists
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RT @WoodlouseM
2031 American Technocrat Party Factions Compass!!!⚡️🤖🧪💡
twitter.com/WoodlouseM/status/

if you've never really thought about this before, I'd urge you to reconsider your automatic reactions to icky bugs; do you really need to kill them? or are they just an eyesore?

if so, maybe you can try to see the beauty in them; all life is sacred, even ugly unpleasant life

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insects are the closest thing to biological robots, clever little automatons w/ complex behavior, social structures, capabilities

if you wouldn't kill a bee, why a roach? they're even less able to harm u. this is cuteness privilege

(if you'd kill a bee pls unfollow asap)

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admittedly, I do kill gnats, roaches sometimes, when within the confines of my home

and mosquitos, whatever they are, with extreme prejudice

but otherwise, I take care to not terminate life when it's avoidable

the ew factor aside, roaches are fascinatingly complex beings

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one might say that this person didn't really mean it, they just acted automatically, on reflex

I would ask, does not questioning your own impulses absolve you of all moral culpability?

personally, I think not; we each have the responsibility to interrogate our automatic actions

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killing roaches outside your own home is naught but an unquestioned disgust response act of cruelty

I admit that they're not the most appetizing of creatures

but is termination on sight truly warranted? or is it a socially-acceptable outlet for aggression?

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I try to not make snap judgements on people's character, but certain acts make it very difficult

needless cruelty to insects is one of them

dude on my (mostly empty) train car just stomped a roach repeatedly

why is this necessary? was it hurting him? it posed him no threat

haven't checked the numbers but I will repeat once more that the proper baseline to compare the energy utilization of Bitcoin to is that of the US military, which is the competing consensus algorithm underpinning the value of currency
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RT @TuurDemeester
Maybe it's time for someone to set up a US Dollar Energy Consumption Index, to complement Digiconomist's great work on Bitcoin 😜
twitter.com/TuurDemeester/stat

we can have both rats and postrats and then many more people who are neither but talk about both, it's fine, we don't need to fight

I mean if you're into that go right ahead I guess just keep that behind closed doors

but we don't need to conjure up drama out of thin air for fun

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a rigorous takedown of rationalist principles establishing a new school of thought is a much more rat than postrat thing to do

it's just a very different style of discourse and epistemic norms, which doesn't abide by the rules of the community from which it sprung

and that's ok

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I understand EYs frustration (which I personally share) regarding people burned by rationalism who now decry it a bit too loudly

just bc you've personally moved on from it doesn't mean it no longer has merit

but I also think he may be expecting something no one wants to do

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if one were to attempt to distill and rigorously define the principles of postrationalism (do not do this, very unwise), I'm fairly confident they'd turn out to be intuitionistic versions of many preexisting rat principles

just, you know, easier to understand and apply

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you don't need to understand Bayesian reasoning or wtf a prior is, you can just follow the vibes

game theory? nah man just don't be a dick and let people live

isn't AI risk kind of dorky? and AGI probably isn't real anyway, let's focus on trauma instead

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you don't see them bc they're by definition on the fringes as they don't produce original rat thought or writing, hence are more or less invisible

many of these people find "postrationalism" more palatable bc its structure lends itself much better to being applied by most people

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the "hidden community of rats" EY is talking about is this vast iceberg of people who have read rat writing, liked it, have tried to apply it in their own lives (poorly), suffered for it, and then abandoned it (wisely), decrying rationalism in the process (unwisely)

they're real

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the interesting part is that a "properly practiced" EY rationalism is pretty equivalent to an explicitly steelmanned postrationalism

this is bc most people, even in the rat community, are not very good at thinking clearly, and get too dogmatic about rationalist principles
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RT @eigenrobot
yud griping about the existence of postrationality every few months is a W for us

"what even is postrationality what does this even mean"

eliezer…
twitter.com/eigenrobot/status/

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