In conclusion: it didn't work correctly.
I dunno what happened, but it copied over basically everything from 2015 and 2016, then dropped everything between then and now.
So that sucks.
The source is a Time Machine backup. Will rsync handle all the proprietary shit that's tied into that? I know it uses custom extended attributes and the unusual directory hard links.
@benis Its output is a horror show of misfeatures stacked on top of each other.
The rsync enthusiasts have convinced me to try that way. Let's see if it can correctly handle the bullshit that lies beneath.
Step one: update to latest rsync.
Step two: read man page.
Watch this space for reports of how well it worked in a few days.